IMOネットゼロ枠組み下における大型コンテナ船向け小型モジュール炉推進の技術経済・脱炭素評価
Techno-Economic and Decarbonisation Assessment of Small Modular Reactor Propulsion for Large Container Ships Under the IMO Net-Zero Framework (原題)
Tae-Youl Jeon, Young-Chan Lee
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
IMOネットゼロ枠組みの二層コンプライアンス機構を内生化した確率的モデルを構築し、15,000TEUコンテナ船のSMR推進を25年間・5構成で評価した。SMRはライフサイクル排出を96.6%削減するが、従来型最良案とのコスト差は入港経路や速度で大きく変動し、単一の数値では表せない。結果の分散は制度シナリオが54%、パラメータが46%を占め、初号機は2030年納入では競争力を持たない。
English
A stochastic model endogenising the IMO Net-Zero Framework's two-tier compliance mechanism assesses SMR propulsion for a 15,000 TEU container ship over 25 years. The SMR abates 96.6% of life-cycle emissions, but its cost versus the best conventional option varies widely across admission pathways and speeds, with institutional scenarios explaining 54% of variance. A first-of-a-kind reactor is not competitive at any 2030 delivery.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
海運の脱炭素は日本にとって重要課題であり、本論文はIMO規制下でのSMR導入条件を定量化している。制度設計が経済性を左右する点は、国内の海運・造船・原子力政策の連携を考える上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global shipping decarbonisation debate by showing that institutional design—admission rules, energy accounting, and cost of capital—dominates reactor economics under the IMO Net-Zero Framework. It offers a reproducible framework for assessing nuclear propulsion in the context of international climate disclosure and transition finance.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:IMO規制とSMR経済性を統合した確率的評価手法を提供し、制度要因の影響を定量化する。
🏢実務担当者:SMR導入の経済性は入港規則や資本コストに大きく依存するため、投資判断前に制度シナリオを精査すべき。
🏛政策担当者:SMR舶用推進の普及には、入港承認や非燃焼機関のエネルギー計上に関する国際ルールの明確化が不可欠。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Nuclear propulsion has returned to the shipping decarbonisation debate, but its commercial case is settled by institutions rather than by reactors. We develop a reproducible stochastic model that endogenises the two-tier compliance mechanism of the IMO Net-Zero Framework, prices its surplus-unit market by scarcity, resolves port admission port by port along a real Asia-to-Europe rotation under SOLAS Chapter VIII, and budgets the reactor’s mass and volume. A 15,000 TEU container ship is compared over 25 years in five configurations, including a 2 × 30 MWe small modular reactor (SMR), with 31 correlated parameters run through 60,000 Monte Carlo trials, a Sobol’ decomposition, and validation against the IMO carbon-intensity reference line. At a 2030 delivery, the SMR abates 96.6% of life-cycle emissions, but its cost against the best conventional option is not a single number: it spans −1.13 to +17.75 USD per TEU-1000 nm across four admission pathways and 32.1 across the 16 to 22 kn speed envelope, against +6.88 on the middle pathway at 18.5 kn. Three institutional treatments decide the sign—admission as a timetable, the convention for counting a non-combustion plant’s energy, and the cost of capital charged for admission risk—and each outweighs the reactor. Separating the scenario layer from the parametric layer attributes 54% of the variance of the result to institutional scenarios and 46% to parameters, and a first-of-a-kind reactor is not competitive at any 2030 delivery. The findings characterise the conditions under which SMR propulsion becomes economically viable for this ship class, route and regulatory setting; they are not evidence of its competitiveness in international shipping as a whole.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14191823first seen 2026-10-02 05:58:30
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