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マルチシステム共進化のプロセス:ノルウェーのCCS(二酸化炭素回収・貯留)からの知見

Processes of multi-system co-evolution: Insights from carbon capture and storage in Norway (原題)

Tuukka Mäkitie, Allan Dahl Andersen, Caroline Veldhuizen

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-09-28#CCUSOrigin: JP対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2026.101203
原典: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2026.101203

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、CCSのようなネットゼロ技術が単一技術の普及ではなく複数システムの共進化を要する点を理論化する。メタルール、制度的・技術的・組織的結合、補完性形成メカニズム(同期・増幅・統合)を統合した枠組みを提示し、ノルウェーのMongstadとLongshipの比較事例で検証する。Longshipでは契約・標準による調整、船舶輸送設計の拡張性、多主体関与が成功要因となった。

English

This paper theorizes how net-zero solutions like CCS require co-evolution across multiple systems, not just single-technology diffusion. It develops a framework integrating meta-rules, structural couplings (institutional, technological, organizational), and complementarity mechanisms (synchronization, amplification, integration), illustrated through a comparative case study of Norway's Mongstad and Longship CCS projects. Longship's success stemmed from coordination via contracts and standards, scalable ship-to-terminal design, and multi-actor involvement, unlike Mongstad's failure to manage system couplings.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本はCCSをGX推進の重要技術と位置づけ、北海道・九州等で実証・商業化を進める。本論文のシステム間結合や契約・標準化の知見は、日本のCCSバリューチェーン構築や政策設計に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Globally, CCS is central to net-zero pathways and transition finance, yet few studies theorize multi-system co-evolution. This paper offers a framework for understanding how policy, industry, and infrastructure couplings enable CCS clusters, relevant to ISSB/TCFD disclosure of transition plans and to national CCS strategies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:CCSやサステナビリティ・トランジション研究において、多システム共進化の理論的枠組みと実証手法を提供する。

🏢実務担当者:CCSプロジェクトの設計・契約・標準化において、システム間の調整と拡張性確保の重要性を学べる。

🏛政策担当者:CCS政策において、制度・技術・組織の結合を促進するメタルールや補完性メカニズムの設計に示唆を与える。

📄 Abstract(原文)

Net-zero solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) require the creation of whole new clusters of innovations rather than “merely” a transition in existing systems or the diffusion of single technologies. While prior work highlights negative cross-system interdependencies (e.g., chicken and egg problems), this paper presents a theorization and an empirical study of the processes of multi-system co-evolution that contribute to the formation and development of multi-system complexes. To do this, a framework that integrates the concepts of a meta-rule, structural couplings (institutional, technological, organizational) and complementarity formation mechanisms — synchronization, amplification, and integration — is developed. The framework is illustrated through a qualitative case study of two Norwegian carbon capture and storage projects, Mongstad (2006–2013) and Longship (2016–), drawing on a broad range of media and documentary sources, including policy documents and funding agreements, and 20 interviews. The analysis shows how, in Longship, actors have sought to realize CCS by, for example, (i) fostering coordination and simultaneous co-development between CCS systems via contracts and standards, (ii) enabling CCS systems to expand and diffuse via a scalable ship-to-terminal transport design; and (iii) creating robustness in CCS multi-system complex by involving multiple actors, user sectors and business cases. This differed from Mongstad, where actors failed to prioritize the management of CCS system couplings and related uncertainties. The paper proposes how the processes of multi-system co-evolution can be conceptualized, and explores how actors may seek to deal with the issue of system interdependencies in sustainability transitions.

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