中国における重要鉱物輸入の脆弱性と第一巡供給損失シナリオ、2015–2024年：持続可能な低炭素移行への示唆
Critical Mineral Import Vulnerability and First-Round Supply-Loss Scenarios in China, 2015–2024: Implications for a Sustainable Low-Carbon Transition (原題)
Hongxi Di, Wenjie Liu, Zehao Zhang, Ozoukata Onyedikachi Daniel
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国のリチウム・コバルト・ニッケル・黒鉛・銅の輸入脆弱性を2015〜2024年について評価。構造的脆弱性指数（SVI）と供給損失率（SLR）を構築し、主要供給国が20〜50%縮小するシナリオを試算した。2024年にコバルトのSVIが最高（0.997）で、30%縮小時のSLRは約0.23。鉱物別の供給監視と contingency 計画に資する条件付きストレステストである。
English
This study assesses China's import vulnerability for five critical mineral groups (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper) over 2015–2024, building a Structural Vulnerability Index and Supply-Loss Ratio scenarios under 20–50% supplier contractions. Cobalt showed the highest vulnerability (SVI 0.997), with a modeled 30% contraction yielding ~0.23 supply loss. Findings support mineral-specific supply monitoring and contingency planning for the low-carbon transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は重要鉱物の多くを輸入に依存し、EV・蓄電池・再生可能エネルギー供給網の強靱化がGX戦略の焦点。中国の輸入脆弱性分析は、日本企業の調達リスク評価や資源外交・サプライチェーン強靱化政策に直接示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As global decarbonization scales up, critical mineral supply security is central to transition finance and industrial policy. This paper offers a replicable vulnerability framework for import-dependent economies, complementing ISSB/TCFD-style physical and transition risk assessments with commodity-level stress testing.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:重要鉱物の供給リスクを定量化するSVI/SLR手法は、資源制約下の脱炭素経路研究に応用可能。
🏢実務担当者:調達先集中度の高い鉱物について、供給途絶シナリオを踏まえた調達・在庫戦略の検討に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:重要鉱物の輸入監視と contingency 計画の設計に、鉱物別の脆弱性指標が参考になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
A sustainable low-carbon transition requires reliable supplies of minerals used in renewable energy, electric mobility, energy storage, and electricity grids. This study assesses China’s import vulnerability and hypothetical first-round supply losses for five selected mineral product groups during 2015–2024: lithium carbonate, cobalt intermediates and unwrought products, unwrought nickel, natural graphite powder and flakes, and copper cathodes. Using bilateral trade data and domestic supply proxies, we construct a Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) and estimate Supply-Loss Ratio (SLR) scenarios. The scenarios assume 20%, 30%, or 50% contractions by the largest supplier or the top three suppliers. We also assess temporal variability, conditional inventory and price adjustment, and 17 alternative SVI specifications. Processing concentration is reported separately because the available series are not comparable across minerals. In 2024, cobalt had the highest SVI (0.997). Under a 30% contraction, its modeled SLR was 0.233 for the largest-supplier scenario and 0.236 for the top-three-supplier scenario. Governance risk accounted for the largest share of dimension-level temporal variability (43.9%). Adjustment reduced or left unchanged the initial loss for eligible nickel, graphite, and copper observations; comparable inputs were unavailable for lithium and cobalt. These findings can inform mineral-specific supply monitoring and contingency planning for a sustainable low-carbon transition. The estimates are conditional trade-product stress tests, not forecasts of complete supply-chain losses.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18199932first seen 2026-09-30 04:56:05
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