海運脱炭素における技術経済的トレードオフと戦略的意思決定：不確実性下での代替燃料経路の評価
Techno-Economic Trade-offs and Strategic Decision-Making in Maritime Decarbonisation: Evaluating Alternative Fuel Pathways under Uncertainty (原題)
Antonis Kourouklis, Fotios Chatzitheodoridis, Efstratios Loizou, Kostas Spinthiropoulos, Anastasios Michailidis
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
海運の脱炭素化をめぐり、規制枠組み・代替燃料経路・戦略的意思決定の相互作用を技術経済的に分析。制度理論とリアルオプション理論を統合し、LNG・バイオ燃料・水素・アンモニア・メタノールを排出削減力・技術成熟度・インフラ整備・経済性で評価する。IMOやEU ETS・FuelEU Maritimeの規制不確実性下では単一燃料で全要件を満たせず、船主は柔軟なポートフォリオ型投資を選好することをギリシャ海運を事例に示す。
English
This study integrates institutional and real options theory to analyze maritime decarbonisation, evaluating LNG, biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol across emissions, maturity, infrastructure, and economics. Under IMO and EU ETS/FuelEU Maritime uncertainty, no single fuel meets all requirements, so shipowners adopt flexible portfolio-based strategies. Greek shipping serves as the illustrative case.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
EU ETS・FuelEU Maritimeは日本船主・海運企業にも直接適用され、燃料選択と投資回収の意思決定に影響する。日本のGX政策・国際海運の規制対応を考える上で、不確実性下の戦略フレームは参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds to global transition-finance and disclosure scholarship by linking regulatory uncertainty (IMO, EU ETS, FuelEU) to real-options investment logic in a hard-to-abate sector. Relevant to ISSB/TCFD-aligned transition planning and shipping's Scope 1/3 accounting.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:制度理論とリアルオプション理論を統合した燃料選択フレームは、脱炭素投資の不確実性研究に応用可能。
🏢実務担当者:燃料ポートフォリオ戦略と規制シナリオ対応の意思決定に活用でき、EU ETS・FuelEU対応の投資判断に示唆。
🏛政策担当者:IMO・EU規制の不確実性が船主の投資を遅延させる点を踏まえ、規制予見性の設計が重要。
📄 Abstract（原文）
<p>Maritime transport is undergoing a complex transition toward lower greenhouse gas emissions under increasing regulatory and market pressure. This study develops an integrated techno-economic perspective on maritime decarbonisation by examining the interaction between regulatory frameworks, alternative fuel pathways, and strategic decision-making in shipping. The analysis combines insights from institutional theory and real options theory to explain how shipowners respond to uncertainty related to technology, fuel availability, infrastructure development, and future environmental regulation.</p><p>The paper evaluates major alternative marine fuels, including liquefied natural gas, biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, in terms of emissions reduction potential, technological maturity, infrastructure readiness, and economic implications. Particular emphasis is placed on the evolving regulatory environment shaped by the International Maritime Organization and European Union policies such as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime.</p><p>The Greek shipping industry is used as an illustrative case for understanding strategic adaptation under regulatory and technological uncertainty. The findings indicate that no single fuel pathway currently satisfies all operational and economic requirements, leading shipowners to adopt flexible and portfolio-based investment strategies. The study contributes to a broader understanding of strategic adaptation within the maritime energy transition. This study contributes by proposing an integrated decision-making framework that combines Institutional Theory and Real Options Theory for strategic fuel selection under regulatory uncertainty.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.08585first seen 2026-10-01 05:57:31
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