VECMモデルに基づく経済成長・外国貿易・炭素排出の動的関係
Dynamic Relationship between Economic Growth, Foreign Trade and Carbon Emissions Based on the VECM Model (原題)
Jiaxian Liu, Jiawei Liu, Yifei Feng, Xinyuan Hou
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の2000〜2024年の時系列データを用い、経済成長・外国貿易・炭素排出の動的関係をVECM等で分析。3変数は長期均衡関係にあり、貿易と成長は炭素排出への一方向の駆動要因。貿易は短期に排出抑制効果を持つが中長期では排出を増加させる。低炭素サービス貿易拡大やグリーン貿易制度整備を提言する。
English
Using Chinese annual data (2000-2024), this paper applies VECM, cointegration, and Granger causality tests to examine links among economic growth, foreign trade, and carbon emissions. Trade and growth unidirectionally drive emissions, with trade showing short-term emission-reduction but medium-to-long-term emission-increasing effects. It recommends optimizing trade structure and expanding low-carbon service trade.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の「双炭」目標と貿易構造転換を扱う点は、輸出依存度の高い日本企業のサプライチェーン排出管理やカーボンフットプリント対応を考える上で参考になる。ただしSSBJや有報開示への直接的な示唆は乏しい。
In the global GX context
This adds to the empirical literature on trade-emissions decoupling relevant to CBAM and global carbon leakage debates, though it does not engage TCFD/ISSB disclosure frameworks directly. Useful for understanding macro drivers behind national emissions trajectories.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:貿易と排出の動的因果関係をVECMで示す実証手法の参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:中国輸出産業の排出動向を踏まえたサプライチェーン排出把握の背景理解に役立つ。
🏛政策担当者:貿易政策と気候政策の整合、グリーン貿易制度設計の議論に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Under the dual background of China's “dual carbon” goals and the high-quality development of foreign trade, the dynamic relationship among economic growth, foreign trade, and carbon emissions has become an important research issue. Based on annual national time-series data from 2000 to 2024, this paper incorporates foreign trade into the analytical framework of economic growth and carbon emissions, and comprehensively adopts unit root tests, Johansen cointegration analysis, vector error correction models, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition methods to empirically examine the long-term equilibrium relationship, short-term fluctuation characteristics, and dynamic transmission mechanism among the three variables. The study finds that foreign trade, economic growth, and carbon emissions are all first-order integrated sequences, and that there is a unique and stable long-term cointegrating relationship among the variables. Overall, trade and economic growth are the one-way driving factors of carbon emission changes, and there is no reverse transmission effect. Among them, the effect of foreign trade on carbon emissions shows obvious lag and phased structural characteristics: there is a short-term emission-reduction buffer effect, but in the medium and long term it significantly increases carbon emissions. Based on the empirical findings, this paper proposes that China should continue to optimize the structure of goods trade, expand the share of low-carbon service trade, improve the green trade institutional system, increase investment in low-carbon technology research and application, and encourage export industries to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. This will help maintain a stable foreign trade base and steady economic operation while steadily advancing green and low-carbon transformation, achieving coordinated progress among foreign trade, economic development, and ecological protection.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.54097/zerv2642first seen 2026-09-30 04:54:49
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。