2050年までのグローバルサウス開発移行：変化する世界における技術普及、クリーンエネルギー、適応、収斂

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:グローバルサウスの収斂条件を制度能力・適応資金・エネルギー投資の相互作用として定式化する枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:新興国での事業展開やサプライチェーン管理において、適応資金ギャップと制度吸収能力をリスク評価に組み込む必要性を示す。

🏛政策担当者:適応資金の12〜14倍ギャップやクリーンエネルギー投資の偏在を踏まえ、移行金融と制度構築支援の政策設計に示唆を与える。

The report argues that the next quarter‑century will determine whether the Global South meaningfully closes the income gap with advanced economies or merely prevents it from widening. Convergence is technically achievable at unprecedented scale, but fragile, because it depends not on the availability of technology or capital but on the absorptive capacity of institutions — the D‑Coefficient — and the ability to protect gains against climate and financial shocks.The report identifies four simultaneous transitions as the coupled system shaping mid‑century outcomes:Technology diffusion, now arriving faster than ever but still constrained by adoption gaps. As the report notes, “The technology arrives; the capacity to use it lags.”Clean‑energy build‑out, where solar costs have collapsed but investment remains geographically skewed, with the Global South ex‑China attracting under 15% of global clean‑energy capital.Climate adaptation, chronically underfunded, with developing‑country needs of US$310–365 billion per year versus US$26 billion in current flows — a 12–14× gap.Economic convergence, which emerges only when the first three transitions reinforce rather than undermine one another.These transitions interact through the Compound Vulnerability Multiplier, defined as the multiplicative effect of low absorptive capacity, high cumulative burden (the P‑Integral), and dense exposure to climate and economic shocks. When the multiplier is high, “negative shocks subtract from the development stock faster than diffusion and investment add to it,” making development reversible.The report outlines three convergence trajectories to 2050 — fast, baseline drift, and stalled — with outcomes driven by capacity, clean‑energy access, and adaptation rather than raw growth rates. Demography is decisive: Africa’s working‑age population will nearly double to ~1.6 billion, offering either a historic dividend or a destabilizing burden depending on institutional readiness.To navigate this environment, the report proposes the LEAP Framework — Leverage, Electrify, Adapt, Propel — a portfolio approach in which the weakest pillar sets the ceiling for all others. Diffusion without capacity produces stranded assets; electrification without adaptation yields reversible gains; growth without institutional propulsion concentrates rather than converges.The central claim: Convergence is achievable but conditional, and the conditions are within reach of policy. The outcome is not fated — it is engineered through absorptive capacity, clean‑energy financing, climate resilience, and institutional strength.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.33571366.v1first seen 2026-09-30 04:51:53 · last seen 2026-10-01 04:45:06