グローバルサウスの都市化移行期における持続可能な冷房の経済学

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:都市化・冷房需要・脱炭素経路の統合モデルと回避負荷の定量化に関心を持つ研究者に有用。

🏢実務担当者:新興国市場での高効率空調・建材・系統ソリューションの事業機会と、サプライチェーン気候リスク評価に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:建築基準・機器効率基準・冷媒規制・電力計画を需要ロックイン前に順序立てて統合する政策設計の参考になる。

Cooling is emerging as a foundational development infrastructure challenge across the Global South, where rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and intensifying climate exposure are driving steep growth in thermal demand. As the report notes, “cooling is becoming a central development infrastructure challenge for the Global South” and the first major wave of air‑conditioning adoption risks locking cities into inefficient buildings, high peak loads, and fossil‑intensive electricity systems. Urbanization is concentrating population and economic activity in hot cities, amplifying heat‑island effects and embedding long‑lived thermal demand into building stock and urban form before appliances are even purchased. The economics of sustainable cooling hinge on avoided load. The report emphasizes that “the economics of sustainable cooling are dominated by avoided load”, meaning that reducing heat exposure through urban design and passive buildings delivers the largest system‑wide gains. UNEP estimates that passive cooling, stronger efficiency standards, and accelerated refrigerant transition can cut projected 2050 cooling emissions by at least 60%, while rapid grid decarbonization can push reductions toward 96%. IFC and UNEP project more than USD 8 trillion in cumulative benefits by mid‑century through lower electricity bills, avoided generation investment, and reduced equipment spending—framing efficiency not as a marginal climate measure but as a capital‑efficiency strategy for emerging economies. A sustainable pathway requires integrating urban planning, building codes, appliance standards, and power‑system design before demand is locked in. Sequencing is central: reduce thermal loads first, then improve equipment efficiency and system controls, and finally supply the residual demand with clean, flexible power. This systems approach transforms cooling from a driver of peak electricity stress into a lever for resilient, lower‑cost urban development. The report concludes that the urbanization transition creates a narrow but critical opportunity for the Global South to build a cooling system that is economically efficient, climate‑aligned, and socially protective.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22711853first seen 2026-10-01 04:47:17 · last seen 2026-10-02 04:38:17