証拠に基づくエネルギー転換の促進：インドネシアにおけるエネルギー・持続可能性政策への統計分析の活用
Promoting evidence-based energy transition: Utilizing statistical analysis for energy and sustainability policies in Indonesia (原題)
M Zaki Ramdhan, Daffa Abyan Rizq, Athalla Aqsha Suryoatmodjo, Adhitya Ryan Ramadhani
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシアのエネルギー転換をARIMA予測・重回帰・モンテカルロシミュレーションで分析。石炭・石油が2060年まで主力で、再エネは政策目標を下回る見通し。2025年の再エネ23%目標達成確率は65.21%だが、2060年の78%目標は0.00%と試算され、石炭依存の段階的削減と再エネ投資加速の必要性を強調する。
English
Using ARIMA forecasting, multiple regression, and Monte Carlo simulation, this study assesses Indonesia's energy transition. Coal and oil are projected to dominate the mix through 2060, with renewables growing slowly below policy targets. The 23% renewable target by 2025 has a 65.21% success probability, but the 78% target by 2060 is 0.00%, underscoring the need for mandated coal phase-down and accelerated renewable investment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとっては、インドネシアでの石炭依存継続と再エネ目標未達リスクが、現地サプライチェーンや発電事業の脱炭素戦略・移行金融の前提を左右する点が重要。アジアの移行経路を定量的に示す事例として、日本のGX政策・投資判断の参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper adds quantitative, country-level evidence on the structural gap between short- and long-term decarbonization targets in a major emerging economy. It is relevant to global transition finance and ISSB/TCFD-aligned scenario analysis, showing how statistical forecasting can inform policy credibility and transition risk assessment in Asia.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:新興国における再エネ目標達成確率を統計的に評価する手法と、長期脱炭素ギャップの定量化例を提供する。
🏢実務担当者:インドネシアでの事業・調達・投資判断において、石炭依存継続と再エネ目標未達リスクをシナリオ分析に組み込む材料になる。
🏛政策担当者:短期バイオエネルギー最適化と石炭段階的削減を組み合わせた、データ駆動型の適応的政策枠組みの必要性を示唆する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Indonesia’s energy transition faces increasing urgency as fossil fuels continue to dominate the national energy supply and contribute significantly to carbon emissions. This paper employs three statistical approaches, including ARIMA forecasting, multiple regression, and Monte Carlo simulation, to evaluate future energy trends and the feasibility of achieving national renewable energy targets. ARIMA results indicate that coal and oil remain the main contributors to the energy mix until 2060, while renewable energy grows slowly and remains below policy targets. Multiple regression confirms that fossil energy consumption has a significant and positive effect on CO₂ emissions, whereas renewable energy shows an insignificant contribution to emission reductions. Monte Carlo simulations further reveal a bifurcated reality: the probability of achieving the 23% renewable energy target by 2025 is relatively high, at 65.21%, due to recent bioenergy policy momentum, while the likelihood of meeting the 2060 target of 78% is 0.00% under current projected trends. These findings highlight that while short-term goals are within reach, a profound structural gap remains in achieving long-term decarbonization. This finding emphasizes the urgent need for targeted policy interventions, specifically combining short-term bioenergy optimization with an aggressive, mandated phase-down of coal dependency and accelerated investment in renewable technologies. A more adaptive, data-driven policy framework is essential for enhancing Indonesia’s transition toward sustainable and low-emission energy systems.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.22515/8h4rm359first seen 2026-10-01 04:47:28
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