貿易成長下における大陸間グリーン海運コリドーの脱炭素化
Decarbonising a transcontinental green shipping corridor under trade growth (原題)
Marin Hero, Peter Vidmar, Patrick Vlačič, Marko Perkovič
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
上海・ジェベルアリ・コペルを結ぶ大陸間グリーン海運コリドーを対象に、システムダイナミクス(SD)モデルで脱炭素経路を評価。代替燃料(アンモニア・メタノール・水素)や省エネ技術、インフラ制約を統合し、23の緩和策と代替燃料86%普及でも2050年ネットゼロ未達という「成長と脱炭素のパラドックス」を示す。航海段階が削減量の約96%を占め、バンカリング段階が再生可能エネルギーと燃料供給を結ぶ鍵となる。
English
A System Dynamics framework evaluates a transcontinental green shipping corridor linking Shanghai, Jebel Ali, and Koper. Despite 23 mitigation measures and ~86% alternative fuel adoption, the pathway fails to reach net-zero by 2050 under 2.2% annual traffic growth, as baseline emissions rise ~80%. Voyage phases deliver ~96% of reductions, while bunkering emerges as the critical enabling subsystem.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は海運・造船・燃料供給で国際競争力を持つため、コリドー設計や燃料インフラ投資判断に直結する。SSBJ/Scope3開示や国際海運のGHG規制対応を検討する日本企業・政策当局にとって示唆が大きい。
In the global GX context
Aligns with IMO decarbonization strategy and emerging green corridor initiatives (e.g., Clydebank Declaration). Offers a transferable SD tool for corridor-scale planning relevant to global maritime policy and transition finance for shipping infrastructure.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:海運脱炭素の統合モデリング手法と成長-脱炭素パラドックスの定量化に関心を持つ研究者に有用。
🏢実務担当者:海運・燃料・港湾に関わる企業が、コリドー単位のインフラ投資と燃料調達戦略を検討する際の参考になる。
🏛政策担当者:IMO規制やグリーンコリドー政策の設計において、インフラ準備と技術飽和を考慮した長期計画の必要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Decarbonising maritime transport is becoming increasingly challenging amid sustained global trade growth. This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) framework to evaluate a transcontinental green shipping corridor connecting Shanghai, Jebel Ali, and Koper. The model integrates five interconnected stages, including port operations, voyage emissions, alternative fuel production, bunkering infrastructure, and renewable energy deployment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are modelled using a stock–flow approach incorporating alternative fuels (ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen), energy-efficiency technologies, infrastructure constraints, and feedback-driven adoption mechanisms. The results reveal a pronounced growth–decarbonization paradox. Although the simulated transition pathway combines 23 mitigation measures with approximately 86% adoption of alternative fuels, it does not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Under an assumed annual traffic growth rate of 2.2%, baseline emissions increase by approximately 80%, progressively offsetting the benefits of technological and operational improvements. Voyage phases account for approximately 96% of total emission reductions, while the bunkering stage emerges as a critical enabling subsystem linking renewable energy generation, fuel production, and vessel fuel demand. The analysis further identifies infrastructure readiness, technology saturation, and declining marginal mitigation benefits as key constraints on long-term decarbonization performance. The findings demonstrate that green shipping corridors should be evaluated as integrated transport–energy systems rather than isolated transport routes. The proposed SD framework provides a transferable tool for analysing corridor-scale decarbonization pathways and supporting evidence-based maritime policy and infrastructure planning.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?id=246988&dn=first seen 2026-10-02 04:44:18
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