輸出志向の小規模経済におけるグリーン産業転換と労働市場調整

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:脱炭素と労働市場・輸出競争力の相互作用を小規模開放経済で分析する枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:移行計画策定時に、技能転換・地域雇用・輸出競争力への影響を人的資本戦略として組み込む視点を与える。

🏛政策担当者:産業政策・労働市場制度・教育・輸出戦略の政策調整と移行の順序設計の重要性を示唆する。

AbstractGreen industrial transition is reshaping the competitive environment of export-oriented small economies by altering energy systems, production technologies, investment priorities, workforce requirements, and the conditions under which firms participate in international markets. For countries with limited domestic demand and high exposure to external trade, decarbonization cannot be treated solely as an environmental policy objective because changes in energy prices, carbon regulation, industrial standards, transport systems, and technology adoption directly influence export performance and employment structures. Estonia provides a particularly relevant analytical case because its economy combines strong international integration, a relatively small domestic labor market, a historically carbon-intensive energy structure, advanced digital capabilities, and increasing pressure to align industrial development with European climate objectives. This article examines the green industrial transition as a process of structural economic adjustment in which productivity, employment, skills, regional specialization, and export competitiveness evolve simultaneously. Particular attention is given to the distinction between job destruction and occupational transformation, since decarbonization rarely eliminates entire sectors without also generating new tasks, technologies, and complementary activities within existing industries. International evidence demonstrates that environmental regulation and low-carbon investment can increase demand for technical, analytical, managerial, and engineering skills while reducing the relative importance of certain routine and carbon-intensive tasks [1]. At the same time, green employment should not be interpreted as a separate and clearly bounded labor-market segment because environmental transformation increasingly modifies conventional occupations rather than simply creating an isolated category of “green jobs” [2]. For a small economy, these effects can be intensified by limited pools of specialized labor and strong dependence on external investment, technology imports, and foreign demand. The article argues that successful transition requires coordination between industrial policy, labor-market institutions, vocational and higher education, regional development, innovation systems, and export strategy. Decarbonization can strengthen long-term competitiveness when firms are able to adopt cleaner technologies while maintaining productivity and when workers can move toward expanding activities without prolonged unemployment or substantial skill mismatch. Conversely, poorly sequenced transition can produce regional labor displacement, investment uncertainty, higher adjustment costs, and widening productivity differences between technologically advanced exporters and firms unable to finance modernization. Green industrial transformation should therefore be evaluated not only through reductions in emissions but through the capacity of the economy to reorganize production and employment while preserving its ability to compete internationally.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22696730first seen 2026-10-01 04:44:33